Signal
One score, not three house views
Macro, EM, and geo share one number — deterministic, dated, and defensible.
Macro & geopolitical risk desk playbook
Score the regime,
not the headline.
For global macro and geo desks — one six-domain read on the countries and blocs you already watch. Sits next to your models. Defensible in risk committee.
Geopolitical research narrates the news.
The Index scores the system underneath it.
What it means for you
You replace the weekly geo call with one score your desk can replay and defend.
The payoff
What you leave with.
Lead
Time to position before the reprice
Regime stress flagged months ahead of the spread, FX, or vol move — act on structure, not the headline.
Trace
A record that survives diligence
Every score is source-traced and evidence-tiered — holds up under risk committee or investor scrutiny.
See it on a system that matters to macro & geo— then Get started.
The gap
Your desk buys narrative, not a score you can replay
Sell-side geo notes, political-risk consultancies, and house macro views are timed to flow. None give you a six-domain score you can audit before the event is priced.
Geopolitical research notes
Useful color, consensus-timed — not a score with an audit trail.
Political risk consultancies
Annual or crisis-driven country scores — not a live read you can replay.
Sell-side macro strategy
Written for distribution — not built to survive a risk-committee question.
What the Index reads
The lenses that matter on your desk.
Same six-domain instrument. For macro & geo, these are the reads that change the decision.
Identity
Sovereign and institutional legitimacy — fragments before the currency regime does.
Perceived
Priced geo risk vs. what the structure shows — where your edge lives.
Adaptation
How much shock the regime can absorb before the transition turns disorderly.
Courage
Political will to hold the policy line — depletion precedes the surprise devaluation or default.
Body
Fiscal, credit, and real-economy fundamentals — what your models already cover.
In practice
Where it lands in your work.
01
Sovereign and currency regime watch
Score the countries and blocs on your book the same way. Alert when a system crosses Red or Crisis — before spreads or FX vol confirm it.
02
Geopolitical event pre-positioning
Track domain stress ahead of elections, debt maturities, and sanctions windows — a structural read, not a prediction.
03
Cross-desk risk sign-off
Give macro, EM, and geo one shared score language — replace three competing house views.
04
Portfolio manager briefing
Weekly signals and monthly flagship packs drop straight into PM risk reviews — evidence-tiered, board-ready.
How you run it
Macro desk workflow
01
Scope the watchlist
Nation-states, currency blocs, and flashpoint regions you already track — scored on one instrument.
02
Weekly signal scan
Signal reports flag regime and domain deterioration. Alerts fire when a system crosses a phase boundary.
03
Monthly flagship + Travis briefing
Full profile on calculation date, plus a quarterly walkthrough with Dr. Hanes for desk heads.
04
Position on structure
Trade, hedge, or hold with a documented six-domain read — not a memo written after the move.
Why trust it
Lead time on regime transition
The GFC backtest shows Force Adjusted Insecurity crossing Crisis in Mar 2008 — 6 months of lead time while conventional macro and geo gauges still read orderly. Same engine on sovereign and regional systems for your desk today.
Built for global macro and geo desks — sovereign, currency, and regional scoring on one shared instrument.
9
Months of lead time
Global
Sovereign & regional coverage
Multi-source
Source-traceable inputs
6
Thermodynamic domains
Try it
Try a brief on a sovereign or regional system — same six-domain score your desk would run live.
Pick a system you already watch. Get a structured brief — score, domains, phase, evidence — not a chat essay.
01
US sovereign debt and dollar regime
structural horizon
02
Emerging market sovereign debt cohort
medium horizon
03
Flashpoint regional system scan
near horizon
What ships
What lands on your desk.
Concrete deliverables for macro & geo — not a content subscription.
Live readout
NII readings, six-domain breakdown, phase classification, and momentum — updated on calculation date.
Weekly signal reports
Regime classification, domain deterioration, and cross-entity stress — investment committee scannable.
Alert bulletins
Notifications when NII crosses phase boundaries or domain stress accelerates on watchlist entities.
Monthly flagship report
Full thermodynamic profile, narrative analysis, and evidence trace — board-ready PDF on calculation date.
Ask
Ask the Index on your book — grounded on live readings, this week's brief, and your desk note.
At Analyst+
Custom watchlist
Nation-states, sectors, or counterparties scoped to your mandate — scored on the same framework.
Quarterly Travis briefing
Direct framework walkthrough with Dr. Hanes — anchor briefings for investment committee prep.
Straight answers
Before you request pricing.
How is this different from our geopolitical research subscription?
Research narrates events and consensus. The Index gives you a six-domain score you can replay, audit, and put next to your models.
Do you predict specific geopolitical events?
No. We classify regime and domain stress — not dated event forecasts. Every deliverable carries explicit narrative guardrails.
Can this sit alongside our existing macro models?
Yes. It's a structural overlay, not a replacement. Desks typically run it next to rates, FX, and credit as the regime-risk layer.
One instrument.
Two ways in.
License the live World Index for ongoing scores and Watch/Act on countries, corridors, sectors, and markets — or commission an Internal Index on your organization: regime, threat call, ninety-day plan, and Day-90 Checkpoint. Same physics; Internal Index is a sealed engagement, not a live watchlist. Get started — exact price after Approve. Built for macro & geo workflows.
A
Firm license
Allocators
License the World Index
Family offices, funds, and allocator desks put the live World Index on a watchlist of countries, corridors, sectors, and markets — scores, Watch and Act clocks, alerts, and monthly reports on sealed physics while markets still read calm.
- Live scores and Watch/Act clocks
- Countries, corridors, sectors, and markets
- Ask EI — instrument-grounded answers on live scores, briefs, and your desk note
- Alerts, monthly reports, named users included
Next step
Put the desk on the Index.
Live scores, weekly signals, and flagship analysis your macro and geo desk can defend. Named users included. Get started — or book an intro to scope.