01Lag
Analyst reports
Someone's judgment in a PDF. It can't be replayed, audited, or compared month to month.
Stress buildsMarket movesMemo lands
When you learn about it
After the market has already moved.
Thermodynamic Risk Intelligence.
The world's only AI-powered systemic risk intelligence platform built on thermodynamic first principles. 35 years of framework research, fused across 14 live data pipelines. Continuously scored.
Global Financial System
Our Force Adjusted Insecurity (FAI) entered Crisis in Jan 2008 — 8 months before Lehman collapsed (Sep 2008).
2.17
Crisis
By the time risk appears in your current tools, it has already priced in.
Status quo
Every tool on a typical risk budget fails a different test. None score structure before consensus. None reproduce under audit.
Someone's judgment in a PDF. It can't be replayed, audited, or compared month to month.
When you learn about it
After the market has already moved.
Agencies tell you what you can already see on the ground. Confirmation, not warning.
When you learn about it
After deterioration is visible to everyone.
Correlations track price. Identity, perception, and courage — the stress that breaks systems — never enter the model.
When you learn about it
When price moves. Not when structure cracks.
Your stack today
Three tools.
Three blind spots.
All backward-looking.
The Index
One score.
Six domains.
Before consensus.
What you receive
Every subscription runs the same deterministic engine — live scores, committee-ready reports, and evidence traced to source.
Live dashboard
NII readings, six-domain breakdown, phase classification, and momentum — updated on calculation date.
Weekly signal reports
Regime classification, domain deterioration, and cross-entity stress — investment committee scannable.
Alert bulletins
Notifications when NII crosses phase boundaries or domain stress accelerates on watchlist entities.
Monthly flagship report
Full thermodynamic profile, narrative analysis, and evidence trace — board-ready PDF on calculation date.
Q&AI
Grounded chat on current readings, domain drivers, and historical regime signatures (e.g. 2006–2008).
At institutional scale
Custom watchlist
Nation-states, sectors, or counterparties scoped to your mandate — scored on the same framework.
Programmatic access
REST API for entities, score history, and domain scores — enterprise partners and embedded routing systems.
Lead Time
01
Six domains scored simultaneously. Body, Mind, Identity, Perceived Insecurity, Adaptation, and Courage — the complete thermodynamic profile of any system.
02
The gap between Perceived and Structural Insecurity is where the intelligence lives. Markets price perception. The Index measures structure. That gap is your lead time.
03
When NII crosses a phase boundary, the conditions for regime transition are already present. The market event follows. The Index sees the boundary. Not the event.
T − 18 months
NII 0.3
Green
T − 12 months
NII 0.9
Yellow
T − 9 months
NII 1.6
Orange
T − 6 months
NII 2.4
Red
T − 3 months
NII 3.1
Crisis
T = 0
Reconstructed from the definitive Jan 2003–Dec 2009 validation backtest — 84 monthly periods, Live indicator pipeline — 14 active sources, 6 domains, stress_continuous scoring, deterministic NII.
Your mandate.
Family Office· primary wedge
Regime transition intelligence for macro allocators — sovereign and market phase signals before credit spreads move, with evidence you can defend in committee.
Investment
Market and sector analysis, systemic risk assessment, and portfolio construction — regime signals before credit and equity risk reprice.
Government
National resilience, institutional stability, and policy evaluation — early warning for governance and national security decision-makers.
NAP
National Action Plan and civil-society coordination — measure social capital, community resilience, and institutional trust across non-profit and international institutions.
Supply Chain
Supply chain risk and transit corridor scoring — chokepoint NII, cascade status, and routing intelligence for logistics and operations teams.
Geopolitical
Geopolitical risk assessment and nation-state monitoring — six-domain thermodynamic profiles with regime bands on every watched entity.
Learn more →Case Studies
Retroactive proof on known regime transitions — lead time before markets and institutions reacted. Full historical library on the case studies index.
First Principles
Every system that has ever collapsed followed the same pattern — the same physics. Insecurity compounds. Capacity erodes. The gap between them widens until the system cannot recover. The Index measures that gap mathematically, in real time, before markets price it.
01
The framework applies to any bounded human system. A nation-state and a corporation fail by the same physics. Scale changes the inputs. The formula does not change.
02
Economic time-series, capital flows, text corpora, sentiment, climate proxies — fused into a unified domain score per period. No analyst discretion in the input layer. No narrative contamination.
03
Six domains. One formula. NII computed deterministically. The model cannot move the output. Every score is sourced, tiered, and traceable to primary evidence. What you receive is math, not a memo.
Domains
Six thermodynamic domains — the same first-principles dimensions whether you are scoring a nation, a market, or a corporation. Each answers a precise question. Together they produce the complete picture of where a system stands — and where it is going.
01
Can the system physically function?
The formulas derive from thermodynamic first principles — stress, capacity, and the entropy gap between them. AI scores the domains. The engine computes everything else. The formula cannot be influenced by the model.
Identity: structural + perceived insecurity weighted
0–40
Green
Stable — stress is contained relative to adaptive capacity. Monitor for drift.
Insecurity is the experience of rising entropy relative to available adaptive capacity. NII is the base systemic read; FAI applies the Force Multiplier Matrix to capture amplified danger.
The Origin
In 1990, research into imperial systemic collapse identified a thermodynamic pattern: every failing system — civilizations, corporations, armies, institutions — fails by the same physics. Insecurity rises faster than the system can adapt.
W. Travis Hanes III, Ph.D. spent the next 35 years formalizing it — doctorate, published scholarship, and decades testing the same six questions across regimes under stress.
No other risk intelligence platform, actively deployed, was built on first-principles thermodynamics. Most were built around data availability and statistical correlation. The difference is what you see 8 months before Lehman — and what you miss.
1990
THE OBSERVATION THAT STARTED IT
First-principles research into systemic collapse identified the thermodynamic law governing every human system — before a single line of code existed.
6
DOMAINS. ONE FRAMEWORK. ANY SCALE.
Body, Mind, Identity, Perceived Insecurity, Adaptation, Courage. From ancient civilizations to modern corporations - the same six questions determine whether any system survives.
ZERO
SUBJECTIVITY IN THE FORMULA
AI scores the domains. The engine computes everything else. The formula is deterministic, locked, and traceable to primary evidence. No analyst opinion in the output.
35+
YEARS BEFORE THIS BECAME POSSIBLE
The framework was complete long before the technology existed to run it. That gap is now closed.
Domains
6
Body, Mind, Identity, Perceived Insecurity, Adaptation, Courage
Scale
Any
Civilization to individual — same framework
Formula
Locked
Deterministic math. AI scores domains only.
Evidence
Traced
Every score linked to source tier via SVET
Output
NII
Net Insecurity Index — rising entropy vs. adaptive capacity + regime + narrative
Corporation, team inside an organization, individual, nation-state, or market — same six-domain framework. Open the public benchmark or request institutional access on your mandate.