Structure
A structural score, not a price call
One deterministic read on corridor and producer-state stress — never a price target or disruption date.
Energy & commodities playbook
Score the chokepoint,
before the barrel reprices.
For energy and commodities trading, risk, and strategy — six-domain reads on producer states, transit corridors, and sanctions regimes. Ahead of the move, not after it.
Commodity desks price the headline.
Structural stress builds before it.
Same inputs, same output. Zero AI touching the engine — it never scores.
What it means for you
You price sanctions, chokepoint, and producer-state risk on structure — before the headline spikes the strip.
Open the public desk noteThe payoff
What you leave with.
Lead
Lead time before the strip moves
Stress flagged weeks to months ahead of freight, insurance, or spot repricing.
Evidence
Evidence for the risk committee
Source-traced, evidence-tiered scoring your trading and risk desks can defend under review.
See it on a system that matters to energy & commodities— then Book an intro.
The gap
Your desk confirms disruption after it's visible
Sanctions trackers, tanker feeds, and country-risk scores confirm a strike, seizure, or announcement once it's on the tape. None score producer-state, corridor, or sanctions-regime stress before it reaches the front month.
Sanctions & tanker-tracking feeds
Confirm disruption in near-real time — after stress has already built.
Producer-state country risk scores
Annual or ad hoc ratings — not a live read on fiscal, political, and institutional bandwidth.
Chokepoint incident alerts
Event-driven and headline-timed — corridor stress was building well before the alert.
What the Index reads
The lenses that matter on your desk.
Same six-domain instrument. For energy & commodities, these are the reads that change the decision.
Body
Physical production, transit, and infrastructure — the hard constraint the strip eventually prices.
Perceived
Risk premium already priced vs. actual structural stress — where your edge lives.
Identity
Producer-state and coalition legitimacy — OPEC+ cohesion under stress before a quota break.
Adaptation
How much shock a producer state or corridor can absorb without disorderly disruption.
Courage
Political will to hold production, transit, or sanctions posture — depletion precedes the surprise cut or break.
In practice
Where it lands in your work.
01
Chokepoint and corridor monitoring
Live NII on Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and custom corridors — cascade flags when cross-domain stress starts to propagate. Full SCRM playbook at /supply-chain.
02
Producer-state fiscal and political stress
Score petrostate bandwidth — fiscal breakeven and institutional stress often move before OPEC+ decisions.
03
Sanctions-regime durability
Score a sanctions coalition's capacity to hold — or a sanctioned state's workaround capacity — as a structural system.
04
Trading and insurance desk narrative
Evidence-tiered corridor and producer-state briefings for risk committees, underwriters, and portfolio reviews.
How you run it
Trading and risk desk workflow
01
Define corridor and producer-state watchlist
Chokepoints, petrostates, and sanctions-regime systems — scored on the same instrument as sovereign systems.
02
Monitor cascade flags
Weekly signals flag structural deterioration across domains. Alerts fire when stress crosses a band boundary.
03
Weekly desk integration
Signal reports feed trading and risk standups — same framework across corridors and producer states.
04
Monthly flagship + Travis briefing
Board-ready profiles with evidence trace — quarterly walkthrough for desk heads.
Why trust it
Stress before the WTI peak
Headlines and conventional gauges still looked calm while structure was already under stress. On the sealed 2007–08 oil price spike replay, the entropy gap crossed Crisis in February 2006 — 29 months before the July 2008 WTI monthly peak. Energy-policy Identity registered while retail energy CPI still looked contained. WTI spot peak is outcome validator only; it is not the scored gate anchor.
V5-locked PIT ledger — commodity Body + BBD/SPF Mind + energy-policy Identity. Same physics as GFC, Turkey, and food crisis.
29
Months before WTI peak
Feb 2006
Early stress flag month
Jul 2008
WTI peak (gate anchor)
Sealed
Energy gate proof
Try it
Try a corridor or producer-state brief — see the stress score before the strip moves.
Pick a system you already watch. Get a structured brief — score, domains, phase, evidence — not a chat essay.
01
Strait of Hormuz energy corridor
near horizon
02
Sanctioned Russian crude flow network
near horizon
03
OPEC+ producer-state fiscal stress cohort
medium horizon
What ships
What lands on your desk.
Concrete deliverables for energy & commodities — not a content subscription.
Live readout
NII readings, six-domain breakdown, phase classification, and momentum — updated on calculation date.
Weekly signal reports
Regime classification, domain deterioration, and cross-entity stress — investment committee scannable.
Alert bulletins
Notifications when NII crosses phase boundaries or domain stress accelerates on watchlist entities.
Monthly flagship report
Full thermodynamic profile, narrative analysis, and evidence trace — board-ready PDF on calculation date.
Ask
Ask AI/EI on your book — grounded on live readings, this week's brief, and your desk note.
At Analyst+
Custom watchlist
Nation-states, sectors, or counterparties scoped to your mandate — scored on the same framework.
Quarterly Travis briefing
Direct framework walkthrough with Dr. Hanes — anchor briefings for investment committee prep.
Straight answers
Before you request pricing.
Do you predict oil or gas prices?
No. We classify structural stress in producer states, corridors, and sanctions regimes — not price levels or dated disruption forecasts.
Is this a replacement for tanker-tracking or sanctions-compliance tools?
No — it's upstream of them. Compliance and tracking confirm activity. The Index scores the stress that precedes it.
What sealed backtest validates energy?
The 2007–08 oil price spike replay — gap Crisis 29 months before the July 2008 WTI peak. WTI spot is outcome validator only; dual Act before the peak is not claimed. Full case at /case-studies/oil-spike-2008. The 2014–16 producer-state crash is the inverse: gap Watch 17 months and dual Act 16 months before the February 2016 WTI trough. Full case at /case-studies/oil-crash-2014. Live corridor scoring (e.g. Bab el-Mandeb) uses the same engine on today's routes.
One instrument.
Six domains. Structural stress. Early-warning clocks. The physics do not change — only the entity you score. Built for energy & commodities workflows.
A
License the World Index
From $50K/yr · firm
- Live scores and Watch/Act clocks
- Countries, corridors, sectors, and markets
- Ask AI/EI — instrument-grounded answers on live scores, briefs, and your desk note
- Alerts, desk briefings, named users included
Next step
Put the chokepoint on the Index.
Live corridor and producer-state scores, cascade flags, and monthly reports on the systems that move the strip. Get started — or book an intro to scope.