Sealed clock · Equity cycle
US Dotcom Crash
Early signal and capital timing are different clocks on purpose.
- Watch
- 2 months before the NASDAQ peak
- Act
- Same month as the recession trough
V5-locked (1.19.0)
Event anchors
Day of event diligence.
- Watch day
- March 10, 2000
- NASDAQ Composite intraday peak
- Act / capital day
- November 30, 2001
- NBER US recession trough (realization / max-damage month)
What happened
NASDAQ Composite peaked intraday on 10 March 2000 — the public break clients cite for the equity cycle.
Capital realization for this episode anchors on the NBER US recession trough (November 2001) — the job is damage realization, not the headline top alone.
What the Index showed
Watch: 2 months before the NASDAQ peak (earliest Crisis of any fashion — including gap path).
Act: same month as the recession trough — dual Crisis for capital posture, not dual Crisis at the equity peak.
Impressive and honest: we do not claim the capital clock fired at the NASDAQ top.
Method
Sealed physics. Dual clocks.
- Engine: V5-locked with Dotcom actor profiles and trough-gated Act diligence.
- Hit = signal at or before the relevant day. Watch day and Act day may differ when the capital job differs.
- The live Index belongs on a watchlist for the next cycle — not a replay of this one alone.
Diligence checklist
What a sector prospect checks.
Pass
Sealed V5-locked physics
amp / κ / C frozen. Same engine object in cutoff freeze and published scores.
Pass
Period-correct point-in-time sources
No future information in the month. Vintage-honest ledgers per episode policy.
Pass
Dual Watch / Act product clocks
Watch = earliest Crisis of any fashion. Act = dual Crisis (I_sys Crisis ∧ gap ≥ Orange).
Pass
Claim ceiling respected
Public language matches Travis-signed V5-locked claim ceiling. No invented live clocks.
Pass
Watch ≠ Act on Dotcom
Watch may fire via gap before the peak; Act dual is trough-gated. Explicitly disclosed.
What we do not claim
- We do not say Dotcom dual Crisis fired at the NASDAQ peak.
- We do not say Watch (gap-alone) is the same as Act dual Crisis.
- We do not say dual-Crisis was required before NBER recession start.
Next step
Put the live Index on the desk — not only the last break.