Underwrite
A structural price, not a lagging one
Six-domain scoring on sovereign and regional exposure — priced ahead of the loss, not after the downgrade.
Insurance & political risk playbook
Price the structure,
not last year's loss ratio.
For insurers, reinsurers, and PRI underwriters — six-domain reads on the sovereign and regional systems in your book. Catch the stress ahead of the claim.
Premiums price yesterday's loss history.
Structural insecurity builds ahead of the claim.
Same inputs, same output. Zero AI touching the engine — it never scores.
What it means for you
You underwrite and reserve against structural insecurity — months before the loss or the downgrade.
Open the public desk noteThe payoff
What you leave with.
Lead
Lead time before the claim
Structural stress flagged months ahead of the loss trigger — time to reprice, re-retain, or reserve.
Evidence
An evidence trail for the reinsurer
Source-traced, evidence-tiered scoring — stands up in treaty renewal and regulatory review.
See it on a system that matters to insurance & pri— then Book an intro.
The gap
Your underwriting prices history, not what's building now
Loss triangles, rating-agency sovereign scores, and political-risk indices are backward-looking by design. None measure six-domain stress in a sovereign or regional system before it produces the claim.
Actuarial loss history
Accurate on the past — silent on structural stress building in the current book.
Rating-agency sovereign scores
Infrequent, lagging revisions — downgrades confirm what structure already showed.
Political risk indices
Composite and opaque — not a reproducible six-domain read you can defend to a reinsurer.
What the Index reads
The lenses that matter on your desk.
Same six-domain instrument. For insurance & pri, these are the reads that change the decision.
Perceived
Premium priced vs. structural insecurity actually building — the underwriting edge.
Identity
Institutional and sovereign legitimacy — fragmentation that precedes expropriation or repudiation risk.
Adaptation
How much shock a system can absorb without a loss-triggering event.
Courage
Political will to honor contracts under pressure — depletion is a leading claims indicator.
Body
Fiscal, credit, and real-economy fundamentals — what loss models already price, late.
In practice
Where it lands in your work.
01
PRI underwriting and pricing
Score sovereign and regional exposure on six domains before you bind a PRI line — price the structure, not the headline.
02
Treaty renewal and portfolio aggregation
Aggregate structural insecurity across your book's sovereign exposures ahead of reinsurance renewal season.
03
Reserve and capital adequacy review
Flag phase-boundary crossings in exposed systems for reserve committee review — before a loss forces the conversation.
04
Parametric trigger design
Use phase classification and domain scores as a structural input for parametric or index-linked political risk products.
How you run it
Underwriting and reserve workflow
01
Map book to watchlist
Sovereign and regional exposures across your PRI or political violence book — scored on the same instrument as nation-states.
02
Weekly underwriting scan
Weekly signals flag structural deterioration across domains. Alerts fire when stress crosses a band boundary.
03
Monthly flagship for treaty and reserve review
Board- and reinsurer-ready profiles — Travis briefing for underwriting and actuarial leadership.
04
Price or reserve on structure
Adjust pricing, retention, or reserves with documented structural evidence — not after the loss confirms it.
Why trust it
Structural insecurity ahead of the loss event
Headlines and conventional gauges still looked calm while structure was already under stress. On the sealed Argentina 2001 PRI replay, the entropy gap crossed Crisis in July 2000 — seventeen months before the December 2001 corralito and sovereign default. Load + gap both elevated before the break is not claimed — disclosed, not retuned. Early-stress tier for underwriting escalation.
V5-locked PIT ledger — curated FRED/OECD Body (reserves/FX/M2/imports) + policy-stress and TIC Mind + UTDT ICC Perceived + V-Dem Identity + BIS Adaptation. WEO void pre-2009; ALFRED void pre-2011. Same physics as GFC. Gate gap_crisis_on_or_before_break.
17
Months before corralito
Jul 2000
Early stress flag month
Dec 2001
Corralito / default
Early stress
PRI early-stress tier
Second lock
Dual FX lock — Turkey 2018
On the sealed Turkey 2018 replay, load and unpriced stress both elevated seven months before the August 10 2018 lira break. Same frozen physics as Argentina and GFC. This is the FX/macro book second lock — not a swap off the PRI early-stress flag.
V5-locked PIT ledger — contemporaneous_lag_0_2 dual gate. Dual lead of August FX news is not claimed until earned under the sealed news barometer.
7
Months before lira break
Jan 2018
Load + gap both elevated
Aug 10 2018
Lira break
FX lock
Second sealed lock
Try it
Try a brief on a PRI or sovereign exposure — see the structural score before the claim.
Pick a system you already watch. Get a structured brief — score, domains, phase, evidence — not a chat essay.
01
Emerging market political risk insurance portfolio
medium horizon
02
Sovereign credit and expropriation exposure cohort
structural horizon
03
Political violence and terrorism aggregation zone
near horizon
What ships
What lands on your desk.
Concrete deliverables for insurance & pri — not a content subscription.
Live readout
NII readings, six-domain breakdown, phase classification, and momentum — updated on calculation date.
Weekly signal reports
Regime classification, domain deterioration, and cross-entity stress — investment committee scannable.
Alert bulletins
Notifications when NII crosses phase boundaries or domain stress accelerates on watchlist entities.
Monthly flagship report
Full thermodynamic profile, narrative analysis, and evidence trace — board-ready PDF on calculation date.
Ask
Ask AI/EI on your book — grounded on live readings, this week's brief, and your desk note.
At Analyst+
Custom watchlist
Nation-states, sectors, or counterparties scoped to your mandate — scored on the same framework.
Quarterly Travis briefing
Direct framework walkthrough with Dr. Hanes — anchor briefings for investment committee prep.
Straight answers
Before you request pricing.
Is this a replacement for actuarial models?
No. The Index is a structural overlay — a leading, source-traced signal that complements loss triangles and cat models, not a substitute.
Is there a sealed historical PRI / sovereign backtest?
Yes — two locks, two estimands. Argentina 2001 is the PRI Watch-class gate: gap Crisis seventeen months before the December 2001 corralito and default; dual Act before the break is not claimed. Turkey 2018 is the dual FX lock: Watch and Act both lit seven months before the August 10 lira break. Full cases at /case-studies/argentina-2001 and /case-studies/turkey-2018.
What about UK gilts / LDI 2022 — is that an insurance lock?
No. UK gilts 2022 is a sealed diagnostic miss: dual Crisis did not fire at the September 2022 mini-budget under frozen physics. National macro/BIS private-credit stacks miss gilt–LDI plumbing. Disclosed construct-coverage limit — not a client lock, not a retune ask.
Can this feed parametric or index-linked products?
Yes. Phase classification and domain scores are structured, reproducible inputs suitable for parametric trigger design — discussed on briefing.
How does this differ from rating-agency sovereign scores?
Rating actions are infrequent and lag the structure. The Index scores six domains continuously with a replayable audit trail.
One instrument.
Six domains. Structural stress. Early-warning clocks. The physics do not change — only the entity you score. Built for insurance & pri workflows.
A
License the World Index
From $50K/yr · firm
- Live scores and Watch/Act clocks
- Countries, corridors, sectors, and markets
- Ask AI/EI — instrument-grounded answers on live scores, briefs, and your desk note
- Alerts, desk briefings, named users included
Next step
Put the book on the Index.
Live sovereign and regional scores, alerts, and treaty-ready reports for underwriting and actuarial teams. Named users included. Get started — or book an intro to scope.