Venture Portfolio Risk Intelligence — free desk dossier

You time capital and intervention to structure — not the last board deck or the loudest narrative in the category. Structural risk layer for the office — when to pay attention, when stress is serious enough for capital. Scored across six thermodynamic domains — no dated forecast, no allocation advice, sealed engine.

What this desk needs

Market maps, TAM slides, and founder updates excel at story and metrics. They miss structural entropy in the vertical and inside the company — until multiples compress, follow-ons stall, or a cohort rewrites the thesis after the fact.

Where the Index fits

Effect: You time capital and intervention to structure — not the last board deck or the loudest narrative in the category.

Venture diligence reads the market map. Category stress builds underneath it.

Six-domain profile

Domains for Venture: Adaptation, Perceived, Courage, Identity, Mind.

  • Adaptation — Category and company bandwidth to absorb shock — depleted bandwidth kills timelines before the metric board shows it.
  • Perceived — Hype vs. structure — where crowded rounds and narrative premia diverge from the underlying system.
  • Courage — Founder and leadership will to cut, reset, or hold sequence under pressure — not founder mythology.
  • Identity — Trust and culture cohesion inside the portco — fractures before the retention cliff or the re-org.
  • Mind — Signal clarity through the org — decision quality under growth and AI load.

What you leave with

  • Vertical: A score on the industry you underwrite — Desk-licensed phase reads on sectors and geos in your thesis — category timing with an audit trail, not another market map.
  • Portco: A Company Index on the company — Score, six domains, TVG, and a sequenced 90-day plan — dated, defensible in partner and LP rooms.
  • Lead: Lead time before the write-down — Structural stress months ahead of the metric cliff — time to intervene, reserve, or re-underwrite the thesis.

How desks use it

  • Vertical and thesis watchlists — Score the industries and corridors your funds underwrite — alerts when the category crosses a phase boundary, not when TechCrunch notices.
  • Pre-term-sheet organizational screen — Fast structural read on a target company before deep diligence spend — same instrument as nations and markets.
  • Portco under load — Full Company Index when a company is restructuring, AI-loading, or missing plan — score first, then sequence intervention.

Evidence anchor

### What locks Portfolio and category compression replays show Perceived Insecurity elevated while Adaptation and Courage sit depleted — the arc that precedes write-downs and crowded-category resets by months, while dashboards still report through.

View the engine backtest

What we will not claim

  • This is structural classification — not a dated forecast, not an allocation signal, not a return claim.
  • Scoring is deterministic under sealed physics. AI structures evidence into that formula and can read the face. It does not write the number.

Data in. Score out — no AI in the number.

Common questions

How is this different from PE? Same instrument. Different job. PE leans hold-period ops and covenant risk. Venture leans category timing and earlier-stage portco stress — thesis verticals on the desk, Company Index when a company is under load.

Do you score startups from public data only? Company Index engagements are public-data scoped by default. You can provide internal materials; we don't scrape private metrics as a product claim. Vertical and industry scores use the same sealed Index stack as other desks.

Is this a market-map or TAM tool? No. We classify structural stress and phase conditions in systems — industries, geos, organizations — not addressable-market sizing or competitor feature grids.

Full desk playbook

Venture Portfolio Risk Intelligence playbook · White paper · Case studies.

Q&A

How is this different from PE?
Same instrument. Different job. PE leans hold-period ops and covenant risk. Venture leans category timing and earlier-stage portco stress — thesis verticals on the desk, Company Index when a company is under load.
Do you score startups from public data only?
Company Index engagements are public-data scoped by default. You can provide internal materials; we don't scrape private metrics as a product claim. Vertical and industry scores use the same sealed Index stack as other desks.
Is this a market-map or TAM tool?
No. We classify structural stress and phase conditions in systems — industries, geos, organizations — not addressable-market sizing or competitor feature grids.

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