What this desk needs
Country ratings, sell-side macro, and VIX measure perception or lagging stress. They miss Identity, Adaptation, and Courage deterioration building before it reprices into your book.
Where the Index fits
Effect: You rebalance on a structural score months before the headline confirms it.
Macro desks price perception. The Index measures structure.
Six-domain profile
Domains for Family Office: Identity, Perceived, Adaptation, Courage, Body.
- Identity — Sovereign and institutional legitimacy — where fragmentation shows before ratings move.
- Perceived — Priced risk vs. structural insecurity — where allocators find their edge.
- Adaptation — Policy and market bandwidth to absorb shocks — orderly vs. disorderly transition.
- Courage — Political and institutional will to act — depletion precedes the 'unexpected' crisis.
- Body — Balance sheets, credit, and real-economy fundamentals — what your dashboards already cover.
What you leave with
- Clarity: A number your IC can defend — One deterministic score per system — replayable, source-traced, ready for the room.
- Lead: Time to rebalance before the reprice — Structural stress flagged months ahead of spread widening or rating action.
- Evidence: An audit trail for every call — Primary sources and evidence tiers — diligence-ready for LPs, boards, and regulators.
How desks use it
- Sovereign and FX stress watch — Score countries and currency blocs on the same six domains. Alert when NII crosses Red or Crisis — months before conventional indicators confirm.
- Allocator rebalancing window — Use phase trajectory and domain divergence to shift risk-on vs. defensive sleeves — without waiting for downgrades or headlines.
- Counterparty and banking stress — Monitor financial-system stress alongside your credit work. Cascade flags surface cross-domain pressure before it hits the lending book.
Evidence anchor
### What locks The GFC validation backtest shows amplified stress in Crisis by Mar 2008 — 6 months before Lehman while VIX and credit spreads still looked orderly. Deterministic scoring, primary-sourced evidence, reproducible method.
What we will not claim
- No. We classify structural stress in six domains — not dated event forecasts. Narrative guardrails ship with every deliverable.
Data in. Score out — no AI in the number.
Common questions
How is this different from our geopolitical subscription? Geo services describe events and scenarios. The Index scores six domains and classifies structural stress — with numbers you can replay and audit.
What is the minimum engagement? Annual institutional partnerships scoped to your watchlist and cadence. Onboarding includes watchlist scoping and a Travis anchor briefing — pricing discussed on briefing.
Do you predict specific events? No. We classify structural stress in six domains — not dated event forecasts. Narrative guardrails ship with every deliverable.
Full desk playbook
Family Office Risk Intelligence playbook · White paper · Case studies.