Named index
August 6, 2026 · Institutional diligence
Fragile States Index vs Entropy Index
State fragility taxonomy — versus thermodynamic systemic stress and capital clocks.
The Fragile States Index (Fund for Peace) ranks countries on state fragility pressures and capacity. Entropy Index measures systemic adaptive stress under sealed six-domain physics with Watch and Act clocks. Fragility taxonomy vs regime instrument — adjacent, not identical.
Three terms a mandate IC needs before reading the clocks — same language on the live Index.
- Watch
- Earliest Crisis of any fashion — I_sys Crisis, gap Crisis, or dual. Surface to clients; do not allocate on Watch alone.
- Act
- Dual Crisis — I_sys Crisis ∧ entropy gap ≥ Orange. The capital posture clock.
- Hit
- Signal at or before the relevant event day. Lighting on the day counts; missing the month is a miss.
Side by side
| Dimension | Fragile States Index | Entropy Index |
|---|---|---|
| Object | State fragility pressures and coping capacity | Thermodynamic insecurity / systemic stress on adaptive systems |
| Audience | Policy, NGO, research, some corporate risk | Institutional allocators and risk committees |
| Output | Annual (and related) fragility rankings and scores | Live NII · regime bands · sealed historical clocks |
| Capital language | Fragility categories for policy attention | Watch vs Act for notice vs allocate |
| Proof | Long-running FSI public franchise | Watch and Act both lit dual Crisis by March 2008 — 6 months before Lehman. |
When Fragile States Index wins
- You need a public, comparable fragility ranking for policy or research.
- The question is state fragility taxonomy, not desk capital clocks.
- You want an open annual index, not a licensed instrument.
When Entropy Index wins
- The IC needs sealed physics and Watch/Act language.
- You are allocating capital under structural stress — not mapping fragility for policy alone.
- You need sealed case clocks on one instrument.
Sealed proof · same physics as live
Three locked case studies under V5-locked physics — team-ready PDF on each page for IC circulation.
GFC 2008 · banner proof
· US · dual Crisis leadWatch and Act both lit dual Crisis by March 2008 — 6 months before Lehman.
Open study + team PDF →
Turkey 2018 · gate lock
· Non-US · FX stress classWatch and Act both register Crisis seven months before the August 2018 lira break — same frozen physics hash as GFC, period-correct country ledger.
Open study + team PDF →
Dotcom · dual-clock doctrine
· US · Watch ≠ ActWatch lit 2 months before the NASDAQ peak; Act dual Crisis at the NBER recession trough — early signal and capital timing are different jobs.
Open study + team PDF →
Adjacent, not interchangeable
Fragility and systemic stress rhyme in casual speech. Diligence separates them. FSI is a public policy-facing fragility framework. Entropy Index is an institutional sealed instrument. See also country risk ratings and ICRG.
Boundaries
We will not claim to be “the new Fragile States Index.” We will not scrape FSI into marketing theater.
Sealed V5-locked (1.19.0) — amp/κ/C frozen; same physics on live watch and historical cases. These pages are category contrasts — not live model runs or dated forecasts.
What we will not claim
- We do not claim Entropy Index replaces every gauge, rating, or research firm named in these contrasts.
- We do not publish live Watch/Act labels without product chrome on the live face.
- We do not invent lead times beyond Travis-signed sealed case clocks.
- Watch (earliest Crisis of any fashion) is not Act (dual Crisis) — do not allocate on Watch alone.
Questions desks ask
- Do you publish an annual fragility ranking?
- No. We publish Index-native research and live regime bands on scored systems — different public objects.
Related contrasts
- Country risk ratingsEIU, Fitch, ICRG-class scorecards — versus sealed regime thermodynamics.
- ICRG / PRS GroupClassic political–economic–financial country ratings — versus regime thermodynamics and dual clocks.
- Geopolitical Risk (GPR) IndexNewspaper tallies of geopolitical tension — versus sealed thermodynamic stress on human systems.
Category contrast · www.entropyindex.com/alternatives/fragile-states-index · not a live model run