What this desk needs
LBO models, management meetings, and sector reports excel at company fundamentals. They underweight stress building in the target and its operating environment — until spreads, defaults, or forced sellers confirm it.
Where the Index fits
Effect: You leave with a scored target and a sequenced plan — plus a watchlist that flags the next one before it's a fire drill.
PE diligence reads the balance sheet. Regime stress prices in first.
Six-domain profile
Domains for Private Equity: Adaptation, Courage, Perceived, Identity.
- Adaptation — Absorptive capacity for the operating plan — thesis-breaking when depleted under a value-creation timeline.
- Courage — Management willingness to cut, reset, or hold sequence during the hold period.
- Perceived — Narrative vs. structure — where multiple compression begins before financials confirm it.
- Identity — Post-close integration risk — culture and trust fractures diligence spreadsheets miss.
What you leave with
- Target: A scored target, pre- or post-close — Full RII instrument on the portco or acquisition target — score, six domains, TVG, and reversibility, dated to the engagement.
- Sequence: A 90-day value-creation sequence — Priorities and a risk register authored against the readout — not a generic 100-day template.
- Desk: A watchlist on the sector around it — Desk-licensed scoring on peer sets, geographies, and counterparties — distress windows and add-on timing on the same instrument.
How desks use it
- Pre-LOI target screening — Score targets before deep diligence spend — Identity, Adaptation, and Courage often flag integration risk that comps miss.
- Portfolio Company Index — Full engagement on a named portco under stress or ahead of a value-creation plan — score, plan, and deployment support scoped together.
- Competitor distress windows — Desk watchlist on peer sets and sub-sectors for phase deterioration — windows where forced asset sales may create entry.
Evidence anchor
### What locks Portfolio compression replays show Perceived Insecurity elevated while Adaptation and Courage sit depleted — the stress arc that precedes multiple compression by six to eighteen months, while quarterly financials are still reporting through.
What we will not claim
- This is structural classification — not a dated forecast, not an allocation signal, not a return claim.
- Scoring is deterministic under sealed physics. AI structures evidence into that formula and can read the face. It does not write the number.
Data in. Score out — no AI in the number.
Common questions
Is this company-level or macro? Both, scoped separately. The Company Index scores a named portco or target end to end. The desk license watchlists sectors, geographies, and counterparties around it — company financials stay in your models.
Can we score acquisition targets pre-LOI? Yes. A scoped Company Index engagement or a fast desk watchlist add — either gives a structural profile before deep diligence spend.
How does pricing work for PE firms? Company Index engagements are scoped per target. Desk licenses are annual, sized to watchlist depth and briefing cadence. Both are discussed on briefing with Travis.
Full desk playbook
Private Equity Portfolio Risk playbook · White paper · Case studies.