What locked
Headlines and conventional gauges still looked calm while structure was already under stress. On the sealed Russia 2022 Mind-path replay, the entropy gap crossed Crisis in January 2022 — one month before the 24 February invasion. Load + gap both elevated on the aggressor is not claimed — disclosed, not retuned. Diagnostic tier: systems capacity and Mind stress, not conflict odds.
_V5-locked PIT ledger — WEO Body + RUS_EPU Mind + V-Dem Identity + BIS Adaptation. Same physics as GFC. Gate entropy_gap_crisis_lag_0_2. Ukraine Body realization is a separate episode._
What we will not claim
- No. The Index never scores conflict probability or dyadic relationship odds. It measures structural capacity — industrial, institutional, and adaptive bandwidth — to sustain a policy or posture.
Data in. Score out — no AI in the number.
Full sealed case
View Russia 2022 sealed case · V5-lock note · Defense & Aerospace desk playbook.