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Sealed proof for Supply Chain: System stress before the empty lot

System stress before the empty lot — Headlines and conventional gauges still looked calm while structure was already under stress.

What locked

Headlines and conventional gauges still looked calm while structure was already under stress. On the 2020–22 global chip shortage, the Index registered an early stress flag in February 2020 — nineteen months before the September 2021 auto-production trough (IPG3361T3S = 85.4), while automotive OEMs were still cancelling chip orders and declaring lean inventory a virtue.

_Sealed V5-locked backtest — semiconductor PPI + auto IP + inventory-to-sales Body, EPU Mind, chip-policy Identity. Same frozen physics as GFC and food crisis. Auto IP trough held out as outcome validator only._

What we will not claim

  • No. We classify structural stress on corridors and nodes — not dated disruption forecasts. Cascade flags surface stress early.

Data in. Score out — zero AI touching the engine.

Full sealed case

View chip shortage sealed case · V5-lock note · Supply Chain desk playbook.

Q&A

Is this a live prediction?
No. Sealed historical reconstruction under V5-lock — proof object, not a forward call.
Does AI write the score?
One sealed formula on the live Index and every backtest — formulaic result, not narrative. Scoring is deterministic under sealed physics. Zero AI touching the engine: AI may structure evidence and read the face; it does not write the number.
Where is the sealed case?
Open the reconstruction at /case-studies/chip-shortage-2021 — same locked formula as the live Index.
Do you predict shipping disruptions?
No. We classify structural stress on corridors and nodes — not dated disruption forecasts. Cascade flags surface stress early.
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