What this desk needs
Sell-side geo notes, political-risk consultancies, and house macro views are timed to flow. None give you a six-domain score you can audit before the event is priced.
Where the Index fits
Effect: You replace the weekly geo call with one score your desk can replay and defend.
Geopolitical research narrates the news. The Index scores the system underneath it.
Six-domain profile
Domains for Macro & Geo: Identity, Perceived, Adaptation, Courage, Body.
- Identity — Sovereign and institutional legitimacy — fragments before the currency breaks.
- Perceived — Priced geo risk vs. what the structure shows — where your edge lives.
- Adaptation — How much shock the system can absorb before the transition turns disorderly.
- Courage — Political will to hold the policy line — depletion precedes the surprise devaluation or default.
- Body — Fiscal, credit, and real-economy fundamentals — what your models already cover.
What you leave with
- Signal: One score, not three house views — Macro, EM, and geo share one number — deterministic, dated, and defensible.
- Lead: Time to position before the reprice — Structural stress flagged months ahead of the spread, FX, or vol move — act on structure, not the headline.
- Trace: A record that survives diligence — Every score is source-traced and evidence-tiered — holds up under risk committee or investor scrutiny.
How desks use it
- Sovereign and currency stress watch — Score the countries and blocs on your book the same way. Alert when a system crosses Red or Crisis — before spreads or FX vol confirm it.
- Geopolitical event pre-positioning — Track domain stress ahead of elections, debt maturities, and sanctions windows — a structural read, not a prediction.
- Cross-desk risk sign-off — Give macro, EM, and geo one shared score language — replace three competing house views.
Evidence anchor
### What locks The GFC backtest shows amplified stress in Crisis by Mar 2008 — 6 months before Lehman while conventional macro and geo gauges still read orderly. Same engine on sovereign and regional systems for your desk today.
What we will not claim
- No. We classify structural stress in six domains — not dated event forecasts. Narrative guardrails ship with every deliverable.
Data in. Score out — no AI in the number.
Common questions
How is this different from our geopolitical research subscription? Research narrates events and consensus. The Index gives you a six-domain score you can replay, audit, and put next to your models.
Do you predict specific geopolitical events? No. We classify structural stress in six domains — not dated event forecasts. Narrative guardrails ship with every deliverable.
Can this sit alongside our existing macro models? Yes. It's a structural overlay, not a replacement. Desks typically run it next to rates, FX, and credit as the stress-underneath layer.
Full desk playbook
Country Risk Index for Macro Desks playbook · White paper · Case studies.