Press releaseOpen

Sealed proof for Family Office: Backtested lead time

Backtested lead time — The GFC validation backtest shows amplified stress in Crisis by Mar 2008 — 6 months before Lehman while VIX and credit spreads still looked orderly.

What locked

The GFC validation backtest shows amplified stress in Crisis by Mar 2008 — 6 months before Lehman while VIX and credit spreads still looked orderly. Deterministic scoring, primary-sourced evidence, reproducible method.

_Built for allocator IC workflows — same engine, mandate-scoped watchlists and briefing cadence._

What we will not claim

  • No. We classify structural stress in six domains — not dated event forecasts. Narrative guardrails ship with every deliverable.

Data in. Score out — zero AI touching the engine.

Full sealed case

View the backtest · V5-lock note · Family Office desk playbook.

Q&A

Is this a live prediction?
No. Sealed historical reconstruction under V5-lock — proof object, not a forward call.
Does AI write the score?
One sealed formula on the live Index and every backtest — formulaic result, not narrative. Scoring is deterministic under sealed physics. Zero AI touching the engine: AI may structure evidence and read the face; it does not write the number.
Where is the sealed case?
Open the reconstruction at /case-studies/2008 — same locked formula as the live Index.
Do you predict specific events?
No. We classify structural stress in six domains — not dated event forecasts. Narrative guardrails ship with every deliverable.
Get started
Full bulletinBook an intro

More from the wire