What locked
Watch lit 2 months before the NASDAQ peak; Act dual Crisis at the NBER recession trough — early signal and capital timing are different jobs.
Collapsing Watch and Act into one red light is how desks either miss early stress or overtrade noise.
What we will not claim
- Not a dated forecast product.
- Not a promise that the next bubble rhymes with dotcom timing.
- Act is decide under dual Crisis — not “sell everything when Watch fires.”